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Millet in Maradi Commune

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 20% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 12% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

150–233

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

137–243

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 150 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 137 and 243 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Maradi Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 150 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 137 and 243 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 172–222 188 147–231 255 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 149–219 171 133–231 220 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 150–233 174 127–261 239 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 145–237 174 117–289 238 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 137–243 180 96.8–277 246 –
Price history (439 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026186
Aug 2026218
Jul 2026231
Jun 2026232
May 2026212
Apr 2026195
Mar 2026191
Feb 2026182
Jan 2026177
Dec 2025169
Nov 2025181
Oct 2025172
Sept 2025211
Aug 2025234
Jul 2025277
Jun 2025273
May 2025265
Apr 2025272
Mar 2025276
Feb 2025299
Jan 2025298
Dec 2024268
Nov 2024268
Oct 2024261
Sept 2024282
Aug 2024423
Jul 2024440
Jun 2024375
May 2024327
Apr 2024320
Mar 2024287
Feb 2024274
Jan 2024254
Dec 2023239
Nov 2023253
Oct 2023248
Sept 2023291
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023269
May 2023259
Apr 2023258
Mar 2023255
Feb 2023234
Jan 2023232
Dec 2022229
Nov 2022289
Oct 2022228
Sept 2022241
Aug 2022273
Jul 2022313
Jun 2022289
May 2022291
Apr 2022284
Mar 2022284
Feb 2022282
Jan 2022274
Dec 2021241
Nov 2021247
Oct 2021218
Sept 2021271
Aug 2021296
Jul 2021291
Jun 2021287
May 2021276
Apr 2021255
Mar 2021248
Feb 2021255
Jan 2021240
Dec 2020222
Nov 2020198
Oct 2020191
Sept 2020223
Aug 2020291
Jul 2020282
Jun 2020236
May 2020218
Apr 2020218
Mar 2020209
Feb 2020206
Jan 2020186
Dec 2019179
Nov 2019177
Oct 2019170
Sept 2019160
Aug 2019173
Jul 2019166
Jun 2019171
May 2019188
Apr 2019200
Mar 2019182
Feb 2019182
Jan 2019176
Dec 2018191
Nov 2018170
Oct 2018179
Sept 2018193
Aug 2018245
Jul 2018255
Jun 2018236
May 2018255
Apr 2018232
Mar 2018218
Feb 2018218
Jan 2018198
Dec 2017201
Nov 2017214
Oct 2017180
Sept 2017207
Aug 2017291
Jul 2017285
Jun 2017291
May 2017287
Apr 2017273
Mar 2017235
Feb 2017214
Jan 2017188
Nov 2016165
Oct 2016143
Sept 2016220
Aug 2016232
Jul 2016213
Jun 2016182
May 2016200
Apr 2016173
Mar 2016161
Feb 2016164
Jan 2016144
Dec 2015144
Oct 2015158
Sept 2015161
Aug 2015151
Jul 2015160
Jun 2015177
May 2015176
Apr 2015157
Mar 2015144
Feb 2015142
Jan 2015136
Dec 2014146
Nov 2014167
Oct 2014156
Sept 2014176
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014213
Jun 2014220
May 2014212
Apr 2014224
Mar 2014217
Feb 2014217
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013202
Nov 2013214
Oct 2013213
Sept 2013239
Aug 2013265
Jul 2013300
Jun 2013282
May 2013256
Apr 2013269
Mar 2013264
Feb 2013242
Jan 2013239
Dec 2012232
Nov 2012226
Oct 2012188
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012291
Jul 2012273
Jun 2012265
May 2012256
Apr 2012248
Mar 2012222
Feb 2012220
Jan 2012215
Dec 2011215
Nov 2011188
Oct 2011145
Sept 2011148
Aug 2011152
Jul 2011155
Jun 2011165
May 2011174
Apr 2011160
Mar 2011158
Feb 2011151
Jan 2011144
Dec 2010150
Nov 2010125
Oct 2010127
Sept 2010140
Aug 2010212
Jul 2010211
Jun 2010207
May 2010194
Apr 2010190
Mar 2010176
Feb 2010182
Jan 2010170
Dec 2009164
Nov 2009159
Oct 2009146
Sept 2009156
Aug 2009200
Jul 2009202
Jun 2009167
May 2009155
Apr 2009162
Mar 2009161
Feb 2009162
Jan 2009162
Dec 2008158
Nov 2008147
Oct 2008129
Sept 2008143
Aug 2008181
Jul 2008182
Jun 2008161
May 2008146
Apr 2008146
Mar 2008148
Feb 2008140
Jan 2008118
Dec 200799.4
Nov 2007112
Oct 200798.7
Sept 2007106
Aug 2007114
Jul 2007125
Jun 2007117
May 2007120
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007126
Feb 2007126
Jan 2007121
Dec 2006117
Nov 2006120
Oct 2006105
Sept 2006125
Aug 2006138
Jul 2006154
Jun 2006143
May 2006149
Apr 2006147
Mar 2006140
Feb 2006141
Jan 2006136
Dec 2005136
Nov 2005125
Oct 2005122
Sept 2005157
Aug 2005261
Jul 2005250
Jun 2005221
May 2005189
Apr 2005195
Mar 2005172
Feb 2005153
Jan 2005154
Dec 2004136
Nov 2004146
Oct 2004136
Sept 2004130
Aug 2004144
Jul 2004139
Jun 2004124
May 2004129
Apr 2004132
Mar 2004113
Feb 200499.2
Jan 200498.7
Dec 200392
Nov 200389
Oct 200386.3
Sept 200389.6
Aug 200398.9
Jul 2003103
Jun 2003120
May 2003125
Apr 2003128
Mar 2003130
Feb 2003133
Jan 2003131
Dec 2002122
Nov 2002126
Oct 2002116
Sept 2002134
Aug 2002197
Jul 2002198
Jun 2002186
May 2002180
Apr 2002175
Mar 2002156
Feb 2002146
Jan 2002144
Dec 2001117
Nov 2001116
Oct 2001104
Sept 2001127
Aug 2001176
Jul 2001190
Jun 2001177
May 2001168
Apr 2001164
Mar 2001161
Feb 2001130
Jan 200199.3
Dec 2000112
Nov 2000109
Oct 200096
Sept 2000102
Aug 2000100
Jul 2000111
Jun 2000108
May 2000106
Apr 2000106
Mar 200094
Feb 200097
Jan 200088
Dec 199987
Nov 199983
Oct 199981
Sept 199982
Aug 199986
Jul 199993
Jun 199990
May 199984
Apr 199984
Mar 199980
Feb 199981
Jan 199980
Dec 199881
Nov 199881
Oct 199882
Sept 1998121
Aug 1998199
Jul 1998212
Jun 1998181
May 1998185
Apr 1998180
Mar 1998152
Feb 1998142
Jan 1998138
Dec 1997127
Nov 1997127
Oct 1997123
Sept 1997107
Aug 1997152
Jul 1997159
Jun 1997147
May 1997144
Apr 1997138
Mar 1997112
Feb 1997106
Jan 199794
Dec 199688
Nov 199694
Oct 199680
Sept 199686
Aug 199694
Jul 1996102
Jun 199691
May 1996100
Apr 199693
Mar 199671
Feb 199669
Jan 199662
Dec 199559
Nov 199564
Oct 199556
Sept 199552
Aug 199553
Jul 199565
Jun 199554
May 199549
Apr 199549
Mar 199546
Feb 199546
Jan 199546
Dec 199442
Nov 199440
Oct 199442
Sept 199453
Aug 199464
Jul 199465
Jun 199468
May 199460
Apr 199456
Mar 199454
Feb 199455
Jan 199448
Dec 199339
Nov 199339
Oct 199340
Sept 199346
Aug 199350
Jul 199356
Jun 199351
May 199352
Apr 199344
Mar 199351
Feb 199356
Jan 199355
Dec 199252
Nov 199250
Oct 199252
Sept 199253
Aug 199271
Jul 199246
Jun 199269
May 199264
Apr 199256.5
Mar 199249
Feb 199251
Jan 199252
Dec 199151
Nov 199152
Oct 199147
Sept 199149
Aug 199157
Jul 199145
Jun 199168
May 199162
Apr 199162
Mar 199161
Feb 199163
Jan 199161
Dec 199044
Nov 199049
Oct 199045
Sept 199053
Aug 199057
Jul 199063
Jun 199056
May 199054
Apr 199055
Mar 199049
Feb 199049
Jan 199046

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-602-73-retail-kg.