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Millet in Sabon Machi

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 30% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 17% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

128–216

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

126–229

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 126 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Sabon Machi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 126 and 229 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 140–200 165 131–220 222 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 122–206 152 113–212 196 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 128–216 159 118–236 217 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 127–217 159 115–272 216 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 126–229 160 113–278 219 –
Price history (336 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026195
Aug 2026190
Jul 2026242
Jun 2026238
May 2026219
Apr 2026181
Mar 2026175
Feb 2026172
Jan 2026159
Dec 2025165
Nov 2025187
Oct 2025163
Sept 2025172
Aug 2025228
Jul 2025254
Jun 2025256
May 2025250
Apr 2025250
Mar 2025253
Feb 2025273
Jan 2025278
Dec 2024258
Nov 2024233
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024254
Aug 2024394
Jul 2024407
Jun 2024366
May 2024309
Apr 2024280
Mar 2024272
Feb 2024250
Jan 2024225
Dec 2023223
Nov 2023238
Oct 2023205
Sept 2023239
Aug 2023263
Jul 2023246
Jun 2023247
May 2023224
Apr 2023219
Mar 2023211
Feb 2023200
Jan 2023192
Dec 2022196
Nov 2022302
Oct 2022179
Sept 2022236
Aug 2022263
Jul 2022283
Jun 2022269
May 2022250
Apr 2022250
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022228
Dec 2021209
Nov 2021190
Oct 2021176
Sept 2021207
Aug 2021265
Jul 2021245
Jun 2021235
May 2021241
Apr 2021227
Feb 2021221
Jan 2021207
Dec 2020236
Nov 2020159
Oct 2020152
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020298
Jul 2020258
Jun 2020209
May 2020190
Apr 2020196
Mar 2020186
Feb 2020176
Jan 2020165
Dec 2019132
Nov 2019133
Oct 2019132
Sept 2019133
Aug 2019144
Jul 2019153
Jun 2019146
May 2019175
Apr 2019186
Mar 2019154
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019145
Dec 2018147
Nov 2018148
Oct 2018143
Sept 2018152
Aug 2018241
Jul 2018241
May 2018241
Apr 2018222
Mar 2018204
Feb 2018196
Jan 2018188
Dec 2017185
Nov 2017181
Oct 2017151
Sept 2017155
Aug 2017268
Jul 2017280
Jun 2017262
May 2017269
Apr 2017245
Mar 2017213
Feb 2017194
Jan 2017157
Nov 2016169
Oct 2016180
Sept 2016198
Aug 2016243
Jul 2016250
Jun 2016198
May 2016208
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016146
Dec 2015129
Oct 2015130
Sept 2015139
Aug 2015133
Jul 2015142
Jun 2015142
May 2015147
Apr 2015136
Mar 2015107
Feb 2015111
Jan 2015128
Nov 2014139
Oct 2014139
Sept 2014161
Aug 2014171
Jul 2014194
Jun 2014191
May 2014193
Apr 2014195
Mar 2014195
Feb 2014198
Jan 2014175
Dec 2013191
Nov 2013206
Oct 2013187
Sept 2013224
Aug 2013291
Jul 2013301
Jun 2013301
May 2013256
Apr 2013256
Mar 2013253
Feb 2013247
Jan 2013216
Dec 2012209
Nov 2012185
Oct 2012180
Sept 2012204
Aug 2012304
Jul 2012276
May 2012255
Apr 2012240
Mar 2012218
Feb 2012202
Jan 2012209
Dec 2011197
Nov 2011181
Oct 2011154
Sept 2011125
Jul 2011135
Jun 2011142
May 2011146
Apr 2011143
Mar 2011139
Jan 2011135
Nov 2010117
Oct 2010119
Sept 2010143
Aug 2010225
Jul 2010217
Jun 2010191
May 2010191
Apr 2010194
Mar 2010186
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010164
Dec 2009152
Nov 2009150
Oct 2009145
Sept 2009152
Aug 2009202
Jul 2009190
Jun 2009167
May 2009164
Apr 2009160
Mar 2009157
Feb 2009170
Jan 2009168
Dec 2008148
Nov 2008136
Oct 2008111
Sept 2008133
Aug 2008170
Jul 2008163
Jun 2008146
May 2008135
Apr 2008131
Mar 2008140
Feb 2008121
Jan 2008111
Dec 200789.5
Nov 200798.5
Oct 200786.4
Sept 200795.6
Aug 2007103
Jul 2007120
Jun 2007114
May 2007116
Apr 2007121
Mar 2007115
Feb 2007119
Jan 2007116
Dec 2006107
Nov 2006115
Oct 200695.4
Sept 2006117
Aug 2006137
Jul 2006156
Jun 2006148
May 2006152
Apr 2006150
Mar 2006140
Sept 2005157
Aug 2005235
Jul 2005266
Jun 2005191
May 2005179
Apr 2005168
Mar 2005152
Feb 2005143
Jan 2005119
Dec 2004110
Nov 2004110
Oct 2004106
Sept 2004103
Aug 2004133
Oct 200375.6
Sept 200379.5
Aug 200382.6
Jun 2003110
May 2003115
Apr 2003123
Mar 2003121
Feb 2003118
Jan 2003116
Dec 2002100
Nov 2002114
Oct 200298
Sept 2002127
Aug 2002199
May 2002172
Feb 2002137
Jan 2002119
Jun 2001209
May 2001164
Apr 2001196
Mar 2001156
Feb 2001119
Jan 2001106
Dec 2000107
Nov 200097
Oct 200077
Sept 200082
Aug 200088
Jul 2000111
Jun 2000103
May 2000115
Apr 2000112
Mar 200098
Feb 200085
Jan 200085
Nov 199974
Oct 199970
Sept 199967
Aug 199970
Jul 199979
Jun 199976
May 199977
Apr 199977
Mar 199979
Feb 199964
Jan 199964
Dec 199867
Nov 199875
Oct 199873
Sept 199891
Aug 1998168
Jul 1998209
Jun 1998164
May 1998152
Apr 1998161
Mar 1998139
Feb 1998128
Jan 1998119
Dec 1997111
Nov 1997110
Oct 1997101
Sept 199786
Aug 1997105
Jul 1997140
Jun 1997115
May 1997116
Apr 1997112
Mar 1997103
Feb 199795
Jan 199782
Dec 199678
Nov 199682
Oct 199658
Sept 199692
Aug 199689
Jul 199692
Jun 199688
Nov 199553
Aug 199471
Jul 199473
Jun 199474
May 199461
Apr 199457
Mar 199456
Feb 199455
Jan 199441

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-610-73-retail-kg.