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Millet in Tessaoua

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 25% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 7% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

141–222

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

140–238

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 141 and 222 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 140 and 238 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tessaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 141 and 222 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 140 and 238 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 170–213 187 146–224 267 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 139–212 168 114–224 222 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 141–222 174 118–261 238 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 139–228 176 110–317 248 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 140–238 181 118–288 260 –
Price history (377 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026195
Aug 2026205
Jul 2026230
Jun 2026231
May 2026202
Apr 2026202
Mar 2026202
Feb 2026199
Jan 2026181
Dec 2025171
Nov 2025174
Oct 2025178
Sept 2025215
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025293
Jun 2025300
May 2025298
Apr 2025288
Mar 2025304
Feb 2025287
Jan 2025296
Dec 2024296
Nov 2024284
Oct 2024271
Sept 2024321
Aug 2024440
Jul 2024443
Jun 2024398
May 2024352
Apr 2024331
Mar 2024300
Feb 2024292
Jan 2024271
Dec 2023264
Nov 2023265
Oct 2023260
Sept 2023280
Aug 2023287
Jul 2023288
Jun 2023269
May 2023259
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023241
Feb 2023231
Jan 2023222
Dec 2022218
Nov 2022194
Oct 2022207
Sept 2022248
Aug 2022255
Jul 2022304
Jun 2022294
May 2022274
Apr 2022269
Mar 2022273
Feb 2022261
Jan 2022251
Dec 2021229
Nov 2021222
Oct 2021185
Sept 2021301
Aug 2021293
Jul 2021278
Jun 2021278
May 2021259
Apr 2021259
Mar 2021250
Feb 2021243
Jan 2021230
Dec 2020204
Nov 2020185
Oct 2020170
Sept 2020251
Aug 2020293
Jul 2020272
Jun 2020236
May 2020222
Mar 2020206
Feb 2020194
Jan 2020192
Dec 2019171
Nov 2019172
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019151
Aug 2019169
Jul 2019167
Jun 2019155
May 2019167
Apr 2019194
Mar 2019185
Feb 2019157
Jan 2019157
Dec 2018157
Nov 2018157
Oct 2018148
Sept 2018204
Aug 2018204
Jul 2018227
May 2018231
Apr 2018222
Feb 2018194
Jan 2018194
Dec 2017194
Nov 2017194
Oct 2017152
Sept 2017157
Aug 2017269
Jul 2017292
Jun 2017284
May 2017259
Apr 2017259
Mar 2017250
Jan 2017185
Nov 2016152
Oct 2016152
Sept 2016152
Aug 2016210
Jul 2016167
Jun 2016167
May 2016183
Apr 2016157
Mar 2016152
Feb 2016136
Jan 2016118
Dec 2015127
Oct 2015125
Sept 2015148
Aug 2015167
Jul 2015164
Jun 2015166
May 2015166
Apr 2015154
Mar 2015148
Feb 2015145
Jan 2015139
Nov 2014139
Oct 2014142
Sept 2014190
Aug 2014204
Jul 2014222
Jun 2014213
May 2014204
Apr 2014218
Mar 2014216
Feb 2014209
Jan 2014200
Dec 2013210
Nov 2013209
Oct 2013203
Sept 2013218
Aug 2013264
Jul 2013255
Jun 2013273
May 2013252
Apr 2013247
Mar 2013250
Feb 2013229
Jan 2013216
Dec 2012191
Nov 2012182
Oct 2012145
Sept 2012214
Aug 2012339
Jul 2012278
May 2012241
Apr 2012236
Mar 2012200
Feb 2012191
Jan 2012191
Dec 2011191
Nov 2011182
Oct 2011140
Sept 2011136
Jul 2011135
Jun 2011218
May 2011155
Apr 2011154
Feb 2011136
Jan 2011130
Dec 2010133
Nov 2010122
Oct 2010116
Sept 2010138
Aug 2010212
Jul 2010218
Jun 2010209
May 2010209
Apr 2010225
Mar 2010183
Feb 2010186
Jan 2010164
Dec 2009191
Nov 2009165
Oct 2009151
Sept 2009150
Aug 2009195
Jul 2009202
Jun 2009170
May 2009165
Apr 2009160
Mar 2009156
Feb 2009163
Jan 2009166
Dec 2008148
Nov 2008144
Oct 2008119
Sept 2008137
Aug 2008179
Jul 2008171
Jun 2008164
May 2008144
Apr 2008141
Mar 2008153
Feb 2008138
Jan 2008119
Dec 2007102
Nov 2007108
Oct 200798.9
Sept 200799
Aug 2007115
Jul 2007126
Jun 2007123
May 2007122
Apr 2007131
Mar 2007131
Feb 2007124
Jan 2007119
Dec 2006118
Nov 2006116
Oct 200691.2
Sept 2006125
Aug 2006144
Jul 2006153
Jun 2006143
May 2006150
Apr 2006145
Mar 2006137
Feb 2006140
Jan 2006145
Dec 2005139
Nov 2005119
Oct 2005115
Sept 2005135
Aug 2005252
Jul 2005257
Jun 2005229
May 2005203
Apr 2005179
Mar 2005154
Feb 2005152
Jan 2005144
Dec 2004117
Nov 2004116
Oct 2004111
Sept 2004113
Aug 2004136
Jul 2004132
Jun 2004109
May 2004117
Apr 2004119
Mar 2004107
Feb 200499.4
Jan 200488.1
Dec 200372
Nov 200376.8
Oct 200374.1
Sept 200385.3
Aug 200391.8
Jul 2003101
Jun 2003110
May 2003116
Apr 2003122
Mar 2003123
Feb 2003127
Jan 2003120
Dec 2002116
Nov 2002114
Oct 2002101
Sept 2002120
Aug 2002215
Jul 2002212
Jun 2002196
May 2002169
Apr 2002163
Mar 2002175
Feb 2002148
Jan 2002120
Dec 200199.5
Nov 200195.5
Oct 200199
Sept 2001104
Jul 2001184
Jun 2001180
May 2001172
Apr 2001192
Mar 2001162
Feb 2001129
Jan 2001114
Oct 200081
Sept 200097
Aug 2000107
Jul 200098
Jun 2000103
May 2000108
Apr 2000111
Mar 200095
Feb 200089
Jan 200082
Dec 199982
Nov 199982
Oct 199968
Sept 199966
Aug 199974
Jul 199981
Mar 199970
Feb 199968
Jan 199965
Dec 199867
Nov 199873
Oct 199879
Sept 199893
Aug 1998165
Jul 1998185
Jun 1998177
May 1998188
Apr 1998180
Mar 1998144
Feb 1998136
Jan 1998133
Dec 1997115
Nov 1997125
Oct 1997107
Sept 1997104
Aug 1997142
Jul 1997152
Jun 1997134
May 1997122
Apr 1997127
Mar 1997111
Feb 199788
Jan 199786
Dec 199684
Nov 199684
Oct 199666
Sept 199667
Aug 199697
Jul 1996107
Jun 199680
May 199682
Apr 199684
Mar 199665
Feb 199666
Jan 199662
Dec 199555
Nov 199556
Oct 199548
Sept 199546
Aug 199552
Jul 199555
Jun 199550
May 199549
Apr 199547
Mar 199545
Feb 199546
Jan 199541
Dec 199438
Nov 199439
Oct 199442
Sept 199439
Aug 199452
Jul 199460
Jun 199467
May 199460
Apr 199451
Mar 199450
Feb 199450
Jan 199440

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-619-73-retail-kg.