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Millet in Tounfafi

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 25% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 6% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

140–225

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

142–241

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 140 and 225 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 142 and 241 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Tounfafi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 12% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 140 and 225 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 142 and 241 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 159–218 181 139–228 257 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 135–213 165 124–224 222 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 140–225 171 128–230 241 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 140–231 174 125–275 248 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 142–241 180 128–272 265 –
Price history (376 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026181
Aug 2026205
Jul 2026242
Jun 2026248
May 2026234
Apr 2026201
Mar 2026198
Feb 2026191
Jan 2026192
Dec 2025192
Nov 2025192
Oct 2025185
Sept 2025188
Aug 2025238
Jul 2025282
Jun 2025271
May 2025275
Apr 2025301
Mar 2025301
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025306
Dec 2024280
Nov 2024265
Oct 2024236
Sept 2024264
Aug 2024453
Jul 2024468
Jun 2024410
May 2024373
Apr 2024353
Mar 2024322
Feb 2024309
Jan 2024282
Dec 2023261
Nov 2023261
Oct 2023239
Sept 2023297
Aug 2023331
Jul 2023336
Jun 2023293
May 2023283
Apr 2023283
Mar 2023264
Feb 2023264
Jan 2023245
Dec 2022226
Nov 2022298
Oct 2022226
Sept 2022266
Aug 2022314
Jul 2022314
Jun 2022304
May 2022304
Apr 2022308
Mar 2022305
Feb 2022305
Jan 2022281
Dec 2021254
Nov 2021247
Oct 2021243
Sept 2021268
Aug 2021305
Jul 2021314
Jun 2021301
May 2021287
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021266
Feb 2021261
Jan 2021250
Dec 2020232
Nov 2020196
Oct 2020191
Sept 2020248
Aug 2020308
Jul 2020303
Jun 2020267
May 2020249
Mar 2020217
Feb 2020210
Jan 2020207
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019190
Oct 2019209
Sept 2019189
Aug 2019193
Jul 2019238
Jun 2019193
May 2019198
Apr 2019213
Mar 2019203
Feb 2019190
Jan 2019186
Dec 2018172
Nov 2018171
Oct 2018162
Aug 2018244
Jul 2018267
Jun 2018239
May 2018266
Feb 2018228
Jan 2018228
Dec 2017229
Nov 2017214
Oct 2017190
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017327
Jul 2017310
May 2017288
Apr 2017290
Mar 2017265
Feb 2017227
Jan 2017237
Nov 2016172
Oct 2016144
Sept 2016157
Aug 2016270
Jul 2016232
Jun 2016203
May 2016203
Mar 2016179
Feb 2016174
Jan 2016174
Dec 2015126
Oct 2015135
Sept 2015155
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015193
Jun 2015193
May 2015193
Apr 2015182
Mar 2015154
Feb 2015154
Jan 2015164
Nov 2014147
Oct 2014156
Sept 2014178
Aug 2014203
Jun 2014232
May 2014229
Apr 2014235
Feb 2014222
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013217
Nov 2013219
Oct 2013210
Sept 2013230
Aug 2013325
Jul 2013338
Jun 2013291
May 2013285
Apr 2013281
Mar 2013265
Feb 2013262
Jan 2013260
Dec 2012235
Nov 2012226
Oct 2012182
Sept 2012283
Aug 2012317
Jul 2012305
May 2012267
Apr 2012248
Mar 2012230
Feb 2012230
Jan 2012234
Dec 2011238
Nov 2011195
Oct 2011177
Sept 2011152
Jul 2011176
Jun 2011187
May 2011200
Apr 2011184
Mar 2011171
Feb 2011173
Jan 2011172
Dec 2010144
Nov 2010132
Oct 2010126
Sept 2010152
Aug 2010239
Jul 2010230
Jun 2010229
May 2010228
Apr 2010172
Mar 2010196
Feb 2010197
Jan 2010195
Dec 2009191
Nov 2009162
Oct 2009171
Sept 2009185
Aug 2009229
Jul 2009225
Jun 2009200
May 2009190
Apr 2009176
Mar 2009186
Jan 2009179
Dec 2008116
Nov 2008148
Oct 2008132
Sept 2008190
Aug 2008195
Jul 2008203
May 2008162
Apr 2008164
Feb 2008143
Jan 2008126
Dec 2007114
Nov 2007122
Oct 2007115
Sept 2007107
Aug 2007128
Jul 2007132
May 2007135
Apr 2007134
Mar 2007137
Feb 2007136
Jan 2007134
Dec 2006115
Nov 2006119
Oct 2006108
Sept 2006143
Aug 2006158
Jul 2006171
Jun 2006160
May 2006168
Apr 2006168
Mar 2006163
Feb 2006172
Jan 2006159
Dec 2005146
Nov 2005145
Oct 2005150
Sept 2005172
Aug 2005272
Jul 2005273
Jun 2005239
May 2005204
Apr 2005209
Mar 2005173
Feb 2005161
Jan 2005153
Dec 2004130
Nov 2004116
Oct 2004111
Sept 2004104
Aug 2004136
Jul 2004138
Jun 2004124
May 2004135
Apr 2004140
Mar 2004124
Feb 2004115
Jan 2004103
Dec 200396.5
Nov 200387.8
Oct 200383.1
Sept 200385.7
Aug 2003100
Jul 2003122
Jun 2003126
May 2003117
Apr 2003122
Mar 2003133
Feb 2003128
Jan 2003127
Dec 2002118
Nov 2002131
Oct 2002112
Sept 2002108
Aug 2002185
Jul 2002202
Jun 2002190
May 2002181
Apr 2002181
Mar 2002173
Feb 2002155
Jan 2002144
Dec 2001120
Nov 2001102
Oct 2001100
Sept 2001102
Aug 2001184
Jul 2001216
Jun 2001186
May 2001177
Apr 2001187
Mar 2001171
Feb 2001137
Jan 2001129
Dec 2000135
Nov 2000107
Oct 200095
Sept 2000102
Aug 2000115
Jul 2000122
Jun 2000143
May 2000123
Apr 2000119
Mar 2000110
Feb 2000109
Jan 200091
Dec 199983
Nov 199981
Oct 199978
Sept 199995
Aug 199995
Jul 1999109
Jun 1999102
May 1999108
Apr 1999102
Mar 199993
Feb 199991
Jan 199991
Dec 199892
Nov 199897
Oct 1998102
Sept 1998240
Aug 1998240
Jul 1998244
Jun 1998218
May 1998218
Apr 1998214
Mar 1998185
Feb 1998158
Jan 1998152
Dec 1997151
Nov 1997135
Oct 1997129
Sept 1997154
Aug 1997154
Jul 1997170
Jun 1997146
May 1997146
Apr 1997137
Mar 1997110
Feb 199791
Jan 199796
Dec 199681
Nov 199683
Oct 199675
Sept 1996106
Aug 1996106
Jul 1996128
Jun 1996102
May 1996102
Apr 1996106
Mar 199687
Feb 199675
Jan 199667
Dec 199561
Nov 199559
Oct 199556
Sept 199566
Aug 199566
Jul 199578
Jun 199558
May 199558
Apr 199558
Mar 199555
Feb 199555
Jan 199549
Dec 199448
Nov 199449
Oct 199443
Sept 199476
Aug 199476
Jul 199485
Jun 199474
May 199474
Apr 199469
Mar 199466
Feb 199463
Jan 199452

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-623-73-retail-kg.